The Detroit Tigers trade Rick Porcello, add Alfredo Simon

Dave Dombrowski has been very busy on the final day of the 2014 Winter Meetings. What we know is that Rick Porcello is now a Boston Red Sox. Yoenis Cespedes is the Tigers new starting left fielder, and Eugenio Suarez has been moved to the Cincinnati Reds for RHP Alfredo Simon. It would also seem that the Tigers have made the choice to not resign Max Scherzer as their rotation has now been remade without him in mind. Not to say they are out on Max, but it looks less and less likely he will resign in Detroit. 

With these moves we now see a clearer picture of what the 2015 Tigers will look like. The starting five will be Justin Verlander, David Price, Anibal Sanchez, Alfredo Simon, and Shane Greene. That is still very strong and if JV can have a bounce back year, Sanchez stay healthier, and Price be who we think he is the starting rotation could be just slightly less dominant as it has been. Granted at this point Simon is something of a question mark. 

The Tigers have also saved a bit of money here. Porcello was set for yet another big raise in his final year of arbitration and due a huge raise following the 2015 season. He has the look of a 100 million dollar deal and the Tigers simply cannot afford to have another contract of that size. Simon is due to make less than half of what Porcello would command for next season which leaves payroll dollars to address the one issue that the Tigers brain trust as once again failed to improve...the bullpen. 

The outfield for 2015 looks like Cespedes in left. A Rajai Davis and Anthony Gose platoon in center and JD Martinez in right. That is stronger defensively that it has been and if JD can continue to show some power gives the middle of the Tigers lineup some teeth. More on that later. 

The infield will be Miguel Cabrera at first, Ian Kinsler at second, Joe Iglesias at short and Nick Castellanos at third. The fifth infielder will likely be Andrew Romine so that Hernan Perez can play everyday at Toledo and continue to develop. 

The lineup looks to be something like this:

1. Gose/Davis

2. Kinsler

3. Cabrera

4. Victor Martinez

5. Cespedes

6. JD Martinez

7. Castellanos

8. Alex Avila 

9. Iglesias 

That has a lot of potential, and on paper the middle of that lineup looks mean. However I wonder how Cespedes fits into Comerica Park and I am more than worried about his OBP and the frequency with which he strikes out. However the hope has to be having him and JD gives a little protection to both and helps both be more productive at the plate. 

Dombrowski has made another set of bold moves, and some of this is continual fall out from the disastrous Doug Fister trade of a year ago. With that being said I am mostly positive about the moves made today both in terms of production and in terms of savings to the payroll moving forward. While Dombrowski has a lot of money tied up in his stars the remainder of his roster remains flexible enough to make moves. We can complain about the state of the minor league system another time...given that with Jonathan Crawford going to the Reds means four of the top prospects of this team have now been dealt away this off season. 

Looking at the Detroit Tigers starting rotation for 2015

Granted it is August, and lots will change before the Detroit Tigers pack up and head to Florida for Spring Training 2015. Many things will change from now till the first pitch of the 2015 MLB season, but it an attempt to understand why Dave Dombrowski made the headline stealing deal for David Price we look at what it cost this team on the field. The other day we looked at the payroll ramifications of the deal and now we turn our attention to the performance on the field.

There is no effective way to argue that the 2014 Tigers are not better with David Price in the rotation that without him, but again we must look at our basic assumptions:

The most important of them for this discussion being it is the job of the General Manager to balance out the needs of the current team with the needs of future teams. In terms of the Price deal it would seem the biggest price paid was the loss of LHP Drew Smyly.

Smyly's loss means two different things. In the present, based on a four man rotation in the post season, the Tigers are now without another left handed reliever in the bullpen. Smyly was fairly effective in this role in the past and many of us Tigers fans still see a left handed reliever has a significant need for the current roster.

Now let's not get anything all out of whack. Smyly is a pretty good left handed pitcher and a back of the rotation starter. His stat line with the Tigers seems to support that with a record of 6-9 and a 3.93 ERA, with 89 strikeouts to 31 walks. A SO/9 inning rate of 7.6 with a 1.3 WHIP. He does not have elite stuff (and I hate the term serviceable because a team in win now mode should have 25 solid players), but the Tigers rotation is without those numbers. Granted the addition of Price makes that a non factor in the current. Price is an elite LHP and those are very rare. I would go as far as to say Price is the best left handed pitcher on this club since the days of Kenny Rogers, or maybe even Frank Tanana.

The problem, for me, starts in 2015. Currently the Tigers have just two starters under contract past 2014 (Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez). They have two more players under team control for 2015 (David Price and Rick Porcello) which leaves us to wonder who will be the fifth starter...Sure many do not value the fifth starter and think it is just another piece but for 2015 at least the Tigers will still be in win now mode and that makes every spot on the roster important.

Since there is no real way to guess what the Tigers will spend on the payroll or who they may go out and sign in the post season, we can only speculate about the fifth starter in 2015 with internal options. The first and foremost of those being RHP Drew Verhagen. I know a lot of fans focus on Robbie Ray since he was a big part of the Doug Fister trade but I am pretty convinced he will not be Major League ready in 2015.

We have seen Verhagen in Detroit this year, and it looked like a spotlight start in front of the non waiver trade deadline. However, of all the starting pitchers in Toledo currently his stat is the most impressive. He has a 6-7 record with a 3.67 ERA and 63 strikeouts. That goes along with a 1.29 WHIP.

However much like Ray this is Drew's first year at Triple A. Granted there is no set rule when a guy is ready to be in the show but it would seem that both of these pitchers need more time with the Mudhens. In fact the only pitcher with more than 2 years at the Triple A level is Duane Below. Below has seen time in the Majors with Detroit and Miami and his 8-5 record with a 3.73 ERA could make him a candidate for the fifth starter's job next year.

While we cannot argue that Dave Dombrowksi continually drafts arms that other MLB team covet, there is an overall lack of Major League ready arms in the Tigers minor league system. That could become an issue if the Tigers ever decide to stop being the free spending team we have seen them be for mush of the last five seasons. If the Tigers remain in win now mode I would expect them to sign a major league ready free agent to be there fifth starter.

The only real problem with that is it ties up more payroll dollars in the starting rotation leaving less money to address the other holes, for the time being that remains a legit left handed bat and a quality left handed specialist in the bullpen.